Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

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Updated 30 September 2024
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Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?

Frankly Speaking: Is a new civil war inevitable in Lebanon?
  • Far from deepening sectarianism, Israeli strikes are creating solidarity between Lebanon’s factions, says health minister
  • Dr. Firass Abiad accuses Israel of refusing to negotiate an end to conflict and of committing war crimes by killing health personnel

DUBAI: Hassan Nasrallah, the longstanding Hezbollah leader who was killed in an Israeli strike on his Beirut stronghold over the weekend, was the author of deep divisions in Lebanon, which have long threatened to drag the nation back into the mire of civil war.

Since the latest hostilities between Israel and Hezbollah suddenly escalated in mid-September, reports have circulated on social media about flare-ups in sectarian tensions in different parts of Lebanon as a result of mass displacement of people from the south.

Appearing on the Arab News current affairs program “Frankly Speaking,” Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split in society, as even many Shiites, who form Hezbollah’s support base, now appear to oppose the militia’s actions.

“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose the politics and what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen.

“This is across the board. This is not sectarian, (it’s) among all sects, including Shittes, you have people who oppose Hezbollah.”




Dr. Firass Abiad, Lebanon’s minister of public health, insisted the conflict had not created a sectarian split, even as many Shiites appear to oppose Hezbollah’s actions. (AN photo)

At the same time, however, Abiad said Israel’s strikes on Lebanon had created a spirit of solidarity across Lebanon’s multiconfessional society, similar to the sympathy generated across the Arab world for the Palestinians — even among those who oppose Hamas — in the wake of Israel’s assault on Gaza.

“What Israel is doing by these indiscriminate attacks, when they attack a Christian or even when they are attacking Shiite areas … this will only increase the feeling of solidarity with the community where Hezbollah is based,” he said.

“We’ve seen this also with Gaza. If you look at the Arab world, the support for Hamas is not high. But when people see the atrocities, the carnage that Israel is perpetrating in Gaza, I think that, unanimously, a lot of people have a lot of sympathy with the people of Palestine.

“And Israel, in the way it is conducting its war on Lebanon, has fostered this environment of solidarity.”

Abiad said this sense of solidarity was evident on Sept. 16 and 17, when Hezbollah communication devices, including pagers and walkie-talkies, exploded simultaneously in a coordinated attack blamed on Israel that killed at least 32 and injured more than 3,000.

“You could see this on the day of the attack on the explosive devices,” said Abiad. “We at the Ministry of Health were sending patients all across the country because we had to have a full response from all hospitals.

“And even when we were sending patients into hospitals that were in areas that are politically, or from a religious perspective, diametrically opposite to Hezbollah, the people who were injured were welcomed, they were cared for, they were given attention.




An ambulance brings injured Lebanese to the AUB Medical Center, on Sept. 17 after beeper blasts targeted Hezbollah operatives. (File/AFP)

“This is something that Israel has repeatedly failed to understand; that its indiscriminate targeting or its dehumanization of all, for example, Arabs, or communities, would only lead to more sympathy with the ‘said’ enemies.”

On Saturday, Hezbollah confirmed Nasrallah had been killed in an Israeli strike on the group’s Dahiyeh stronghold in Beirut. The attack follows days of Israeli strikes across Lebanon, which, as of Saturday, had left 1,030 people — including 156 women and 87 children — dead.

Hezbollah began rocketing northern Israel last October in solidarity with the Palestinian militant group Hamas, whose Oct. 7 assault on southern Israel triggered the war in Gaza. Israel retaliated by mounting strikes on Hezbollah targets.

Since mid-September, Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets across the country have rapidly escalated. However, the roots of the conflict run deeper than last October. The two sides have been locked in an intermittent confrontation since the Lebanese civil war.

Hezbollah was formed during Israel’s 1982 invasion of Lebanon. Major escalations occurred in 1993, 1996, and particularly in 2006, when a full-scale war erupted, causing significant destruction in Lebanon.

Hezbollah has since strengthened its military capabilities, while maintaining its role in Lebanese politics. Tensions continued, with periodic border clashes, as the group has evolved into a key player in the broader Israel-Iran proxy conflict.

Israel withdrew its troops from Lebanon in 2000, creating the possibility of stability for Lebanon. However, territorial disputes remained, which Hezbollah exploited to build support and to justify continued resistance to Israel.

Does a share of the blame for the continuation of hostilities, therefore, belong to Hezbollah?

“No, that’s the exact opposite,” said Abiad. “If you go back to the UN resolutions — especially 1701. In 1701, it was very clear that, first of all, Israel has to withdraw from all the areas in Lebanon, which did not happen. And up till now, Israel still occupies Lebanese territory.”




Medical staff at a hospital care for victims after the Israeli military struck Hezbollah targets in Beirut's southern suburb last week. (File/AFP)

UN Security Council Resolution 1701, adopted in 2006, called for a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah, ending the Lebanon War. It demanded the disarmament of Hezbollah, the withdrawal of Israeli forces from southern Lebanon, and the deployment of Lebanese and UN peacekeeping troops to stabilize the region and prevent future conflict.

“Secondly, it very clearly mentioned that Israel should not violate Lebanese airspace, which also did not happen; Israel has been violating Lebanese airspace continuously since the 2000 partial withdrawal from Lebanon,” said Abiad.

“So, indeed, unfortunately, these actions by Israel gave the pretext for Hezbollah to continue today what it is doing now. But let’s be very clear, Israel didn’t fulfill that part of 1701. And even now, Lebanon is saying we are ready to abide by the UN Security Council resolutions.”

One particularly irksome issue relates to the Shebaa Farms — a dispute that centers on a small strip of land claimed by Lebanon but occupied by Israel since 1967.

While Israel and the UN consider it part of Syria’s Golan Heights, Lebanon argues the area is Lebanese, fueling tensions, especially involving Hezbollah, over its sovereignty.

Given what is now occurring in Lebanon, does Abiad believe continuing the Shebaa Farms dispute with Israel has been worthwhile? Surely a negotiated deal would have been a far better option?

“But that depends on the other party accepting a negotiation,” said Abiad. “And, up to now, it has been very clear that Israel is not interested in a negotiated outcome.”

Whoever is ultimately to blame for prolonging the conflict, the result today is mass displacement, civilians killed, thousands injured, and public health system under extreme strain.

The ongoing conflict has created a massive humanitarian crisis, with widespread displacement across the country. According to the Lebanese government’s estimates, nearly 500,000 people have been forced to flee their homes due to escalating violence.

Abiad highlighted the magnitude of the displacement from the south. “Before the attacks, the number released by the disaster management side was 130,000 displaced,” he said.

“Remember that by that time, there was an escalation of hostilities by Israel, and the populations were internally displaced still into southern areas.”

Abiad said the Lebanese government has established 400 public shelters, which currently house about 70,000 people. However, he said the total number of displaced people is far higher.

“We estimate that usually, from our past experience in the 2006 war, the number of people, whether they are living with friends, family, in homes they rented, or even across the border into neighboring countries, is four to five times as many as there are in shelters,” he said.

“And that’s why we really believe that the tally of people who have been displaced is probably around 400,000 to 500,000.”

The pressure on hospitals, in particular, is reaching breaking point.

“The daily tally of casualties keeps rising, as hospitals get overwhelmed with casualties,” said Abiad. “Can we continue all this? The answer is we are working at nearly full capacity, I would say. And it is becoming more tough as the war drags on.”




“There’s clearly a lot of people in Lebanon who oppose ... what Hezbollah is doing. There’s no denying that, if you talk to people,” Dr. Firass Abiad told “Frankly Speaking” host Katie Jensen. (AN photo)

He added: “I think the most challenging would be fuel. I think that, concerning nurses, hospital beds, medical supplies, medications, as I said, we have been stocking up on our inventory. But really, fuel is going to be a critical issue.

“Hospitals, ambulances, they all require fuel to function. Now we have been increasing the renewable-energy budgets in our hospitals — 15 of our public hospitals now have renewable energy, constituting almost 40 percent of their energy requirements.

“Almost 200 of our primary health care centers now completely can work or function on renewable energy. But clearly I would say fuel is going to be critical if there is a further escalation.”

On top of this, Abiad accused Israel of deliberately targeting medical personnel — something he says constitutes a war crime.

“Do we consider this a war crime? Of course, we consider this a war crime,” said Abiad, adding that this was not just the view of the Lebanese government but echoed by international legal bodies.

“When we listen to the International Court of Justice, these are the experts on what is international humanitarian law and whether it has been violated. So these are the experts telling us that what Israel is doing constitutes war crimes.”
 

 


Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East

Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East
Updated 09 February 2025
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Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East

Real estate mogul Steve Witkoff, Trump’s man in the Middle East
  • Though a complete neophyte in the world of diplomacy, Witkoff was named as special envoy to the Middle East only a week after Trump’s election, a reflection of the two men’s close relationship
  • “And this guy knows real estate,” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, appearing alongside the special envoy, said with a smile

WASHINGTON: He has no foreign policy experience but sports a reputation as a talented negotiator unafraid to speak his mind. And Donald Trump’s special Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff has already made his mark.
A close friend to the US president, 67-year-old real estate magnate Witkoff is credited with playing a key role in negotiating the ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and the Hamas armed group.
The truce took effect January 19, on the eve of Trump’s inauguration for a second term in the White House.
This week, Witkoff found himself in the spotlight, defending the US president’s stunning suggestion that he wanted to “take over” the Gaza Strip and move its two million Palestinian inhabitants elsewhere.
“When the president talks about cleaning it out, he talks about making it habitable, and this is a long-range plan,” Witkoff told reporters at the White House just ahead of a joint news conference by Trump and visiting Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
“And this guy knows real estate,” National Security Adviser Mike Waltz, appearing alongside the special envoy, said with a smile.
Speaking later that day on Fox News, Witkoff continued laying out the administration’s justification for the notion of a large-scale relocation of Palestinians from Gaza — even as the idea drew fire in the region, with some calling it tantamount to ethnic cleansing.
“A better life is not necessarily tied to the physical space that you’re in today,” he said, seeming to gloss over the complexities of the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
Trump had nothing but praise for Witkoff at the White House news conference.
“Steve, stand up, Steve, please. What a job you’ve done. Quite a good job. You’ve done a fantastic job,” he said.
It was Witkoff, a billionaire like his friend and a regular golfing partner of his, who was called on to introduce the new president at a celebratory gathering at a Washington arena following his January 20 inauguration.

Though a complete neophyte in the world of diplomacy, Witkoff was named as special envoy to the Middle East only a week after Trump’s election, a reflection of the two men’s close relationship.
Eight years earlier, after Trump was elected for his first term, he named another diplomatic novice — his son-in-law Jared Kushner — to the same position.
Even before Trump took office, Witkoff joined in the Gaza ceasefire talks, taking part in a final round of negotiations in early January alongside Brett McGurk, the Middle East adviser to then-president Joe Biden.
It was a rare collaboration between an outgoing and incoming US administration.
After attending the talks in the Qatari capital of Doha, Witkoff flew to Israel on a Saturday — interrupting Netanyahu on the Jewish Sabbath — in an urgent bid to finalize an agreement.
Then on January 29, Witkoff traveled to Gaza, much of which has been reduced to rubble after 15 months of an Israeli offensive launched in response to Hamas’s October 7, 2023, attack.
He was the first US official to visit the territory since the war began.
In an article published Thursday by Foreign Policy journal, Steven Cook, an expert with the Council on Foreign Relations, said that Witkoff’s lack of diplomatic experience could be an advantage, giving him a fresh perspective.
Still, he added: “The Israel-Palestine conflict is not a real estate deal.”
Born on March 15, 1957, in the New York borough of the Bronx, Witkoff made his fortune in real estate, first as a corporate lawyer and then at the head of big realty firms.
In 1997, he founded the Witkoff Group, which describes itself as “one part developer, one part investor (and) one part landscape-changer.” His wife and a son work there.
A graduate of Hofstra University near New York, Witkoff has several children, including one who died in 2011, aged 22, from an OxyContin overdose.
 

 


’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family

’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family
Updated 09 February 2025
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’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family

’Dad, is it really you?’ freed Israeli hostage reunites with family
  • The family reunion, away from the media spotlight but filmed and photographed by the Israeli authorities, was intimate

TEL AVIV: After 16 months of captivity in the Gaza Strip, Ohad Ben Ami found the strength to run toward his daughters, even cracking a joke during their emotional reunion, filled with both joy and tears.
“Dad, is it really you? I can’t believe you’re here,” said one of his daughters, her eyes wide with disbelief, as the freed Israeli-German hostage embraced her at Tel Aviv’s Ichilov Hospital, following his release by Hamas militants during the fifth hostage-prisoner swap on Saturday.
“Yes, I’m here,” Ben Ami replied, hugging his loved ones who had been waiting anxiously for his return at the hospital.
“I left XXL and came back medium,” joked the 56-year-old, who, according to doctors at the hospital, had lost a significant amount of weight in captivity.
“I have so much to catch up on. It feels like someone has ripped me away and time kept passing.
“I have a million things pending, and I need answers ... And yes, I need to know what happened that day,” said Ben Ami, referring to October 7, 2023, when Hamas militants attacked Israel.
The family reunion, away from the media spotlight but filmed and photographed by the Israeli authorities, was intimate.
The footage offered a stark contrast to those captured earlier that morning in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, where Ben Ami, emaciated and with a short white beard, was paraded by masked Hamas militants before being released alongside two other hostages, Eli Sharabi and Or Levy.
Now free from wearing a T-shirt marked “Hamas prisoner” and freshly shaven, Ben Ami appeared to have a new lease of life as he entered the room where his three daughters and mother were waiting.

Laughter and tears filled the space while from among those gathered someone shouted: “What a handsome guy you are!“
Within moments they were catching up on the months lost in captivity. Ben Ami learnt that one of his daughters had enlisted in the Israeli army. “I’m proud of you,” he told her.
“In the initial medical assessment conducted, it is evident that Ohad returned in a severe nutritional state and had lost a significant amount of his body weight,” Gil Fire, deputy director at Ichilov Medical Center in Tel Aviv said, adding Ben Ami had shown he was “resilient in spirit.”
Ben Ami and his wife were seized by Palestinian militants on October 7, 2023, from kibbutz Beeri, close to the Gaza border, during the Hamas attack that ignited the war.
Two of their daughters, who were with them that day, survived the attack.
His wife was released on November 29, 2023, during a week-long truce, the first of the war.
Sharabi, also from Beeri, did not have the chance for such a reunion.
His wife and two daughters were killed in the attack, and it appears unlikely that he was aware of this at the time of his release.
Draped in an Israeli flag, Sharabi was welcomed with tears at Sheba Hospital in Ramat Gan by his two sisters and brother, his head covered with a talith, the Jewish prayer shawl.
The reunion of Levy with his family was a sober one, marked by long embraces and crying.
He and his wife, Einav Levy, were attending the Nova festival, the site of the worst massacre committed on October 7, where he was taken hostage while she was killed.
 

 


Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap

Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap
Updated 09 February 2025
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Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap

Israel orders negotiators to Doha after fifth hostage-prisoner swap
  • The fifth exchange since the truce took effect last month came as negotiations were set to begin on the next phase of the ceasefire, which is intended to pave the way for a permanent end to the war

DEIR EL-BALAH, Palestinian Territories: Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ordered negotiators on Saturday to return to Qatar to discuss the fragile ceasefire in the war with Hamas, after the fifth hostage-prisoner swap agreed under the truce was completed.
He repeated his vow to crush Hamas and free all remaining hostages, denouncing the militant group as “monsters” after the handover of three captives in Gaza who appeared emaciated and were forced to speak on a stage.
The hospital treating the three Israeli hostages released from Gaza on Saturday said Or Levy and Eli Sharabi were in a “poor medical condition,” while Ohad Ben Ami was in a “severe nutritional state.”
Of the 183 inmates released by Israel in return, the Palestinian Prisoners’ Club advocacy group said seven required hospitalization and decried “brutality” and mistreatment in jail.
While 41 of those released returned to the West Bank city of Ramallah, four were released in Israeli-annexed East Jerusalem, 131 were sent to Gaza and seven were deported to Egypt.
The fifth exchange since the truce took effect last month came as negotiations were set to begin on the next phase of the ceasefire, which is intended to pave the way for a permanent end to the war.
But senior Hamas official Bassem Naim on Saturday said Israel’s “procrastination and lack of commitment in implementing the first phase... exposes this agreement to danger and thus it may stop or collapse.”
He also described, in an interview with AFP, the condition of the hostages as “acceptable under the difficult circumstances that the Gaza Strip was living.”
Saturday’s swap followed remarks by President Donald Trump suggesting the United States should take control of the Gaza Strip and clear out its inhabitants, sparking global outrage.
The three Israeli hostages, who were all seized by militants during Hamas’s October 7, 2023 attack that sparked the war, “crossed the border into Israeli territory” on Saturday, the Israeli military said.
With their return, 73 out of 251 hostages taken during the attack now remain in Gaza, including 34 the Israeli military says are dead.
Jubilant crowds in Israel’s commercial hub Tel Aviv cheered as they watched live footage of the hostages, flanked by masked gunmen, brought on stage in Deir el-Balah before being handed over to the International Committee of the Red Cross.
But the joy at their release was quickly overtaken by concern for their condition, with all three appearing thin and pale.
Sharabi’s cousin Yochi Sardinayof said “he doesn’t look well.”
“I’m sure he will now receive the right treatment and he will get stronger... He has an amazing family, and we will all be there for him.”
The choreographed handover included forced statements from the three on stage, in which they stated support for finalizing the next phases of the Israel-Hamas truce.
The “disturbing images” from Gaza show that “we must get them all out,” said the Hostages and Missing Families Forum campaign group.
The ICRC meanwhile called on “all parties, including the mediators, to take responsibility to ensure that future releases are dignified and private.”
Sharabi, 52, and Ben Ami, a 56-year-old dual German citizen, were both abducted from their homes in kibbutz Beeri when militants stormed the small community near the Gaza border.
Sharabi lost his wife and two daughters in the attack.
Levy was abducted from the Nova music festival, where gunmen murdered his wife.
In the occupied West Bank city of Ramallah, relatives and supporters gathered to welcome inmates released by Israel, embracing them and cheering as they stepped off the bus that brought them from nearby Ofer prison.
But Fakhri Barghouti, 71, whose son was among the prisoners, told AFP that Israeli soldiers had stormed his home and beaten him, warning him not to celebrate his son’s release.
“They entered after midnight, smashed everything, took me into a side room, and beat me before leaving,” Barghouti told AFP.
“I was taken to the hospital, where it was found that I had a broken rib.”
The Israeli military said in a statement it had “conveyed messages that celebrations and processions in support of terrorism are prohibited during the release of the terrorists,” but did not give an immediate response when asked about Barghouti’s allegations.
Israel’s prison service said that “183 terrorists... were released” to the West Bank, annexed east Jerusalem and Gaza.
The Palestinian Prisoners’ Club advocacy group said “all the prisoners who were released today are in need of medical care... as a result of the brutality they were subjected” to in jail.
Hamas in a statement accused Israel of undertaking a “policy of... the slow killing of prisoners.”
Gaza militants have so far freed 21 hostages, including 16 Israelis in exchange for hundreds of mostly Palestinian prisoners released from Israeli jails.
Five Thai hostages freed last week from Gaza were discharged on Saturday from a hospital in central Israel, where they had been treated since their release, and were headed back to their home country.
The ceasefire, mediated by Qatar, Egypt and the United States, aims to secure the release of 17 more hostages during the remainder of the 42-day first phase.
Hamas’s October 2023 attack resulted in the deaths of 1,210 people, mostly civilians, according to an AFP tally based on official Israeli figures.
Israel’s retaliation has killed at least 48,181 people in Gaza, the majority civilians, according to the Hamas-run territory’s health ministry. The United Nations considers the figures reliable.


Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians

Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians
Updated 09 February 2025
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Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians

Arab League reaffirms support for Jordan and Egypt, rejects displacement of Palestinians
  • Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki reaffirmed the unity of the Arab position in rejecting displacement efforts

CAIRO: The Arab League on Saturday reiterated its firm stance against the displacement of Palestinians, warning that such actions undermined the Palestinian cause and regional stability.

Speaking in a televised interview on Saturday, the Arab League's Assistant Secretary-General Hossam Zaki reaffirmed the unity of the Arab position in rejecting displacement efforts and expressed strong support for the Palestinians, as well as for Jordan and Egypt in their opposition to such moves.

Zaki emphasized that the Arab League was actively working to mobilize both regional and international support for the establishment of a Palestinian state.

He also underscored the organization's commitment to countering Israeli claims while reinforcing the principle of a two-state solution as the foundation for peace in the region.

The ambassador further revealed that discussions are ongoing regarding the possibility of convening an Arab summit to address the Palestinian issue.

While no date has been set, Zaki stressed that the matter remains a priority for the league.

The reaffirmation of Arab solidarity comes amid escalating tensions and renewed international focus on the Palestinian-Israeli conflict, with regional powers emphasizing the need for a just and lasting resolution, Jordan News Agency reported.


How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden

How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden
Updated 09 February 2025
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How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden

How Gaza displacement could deepen Egypt’s already unbearable refugee burden
  • Host to refugees from Sudan, Syria, and elsewhere, Egypt faces new challenges as Trump proposes relocating Gazans
  • With inflation at 24.1 percent in December, experts warn more refugees would stretch Egypt’s economy and security

LONDON: Already host to almost 10 million migrants and refugees, Egypt now faces pressure to shelter hundreds of thousands of Gazans — a move Cairo deems unfair to the Palestinians and a potential threat to its economy and security.

US President Donald Trump has suggested that some 1.5 million people from the Palestinian enclave could be relocated to Egypt and Jordan — a plan that has met with opposition from both countries’ leaderships.

 

 

“Egypt views this proposal as an unacceptable liquidation of the Palestinian cause — something that neither Egyptians, Palestinians, nor other influential regional states would accept,” Hani Nasira, an Egyptian author and academic, told Arab News.

“It undermines the two-state solution and the peace agreements with Israel, which many regional countries have tied their engagement to.”

Beyond what this might mean for the Palestinians, Nasira also cited economic concerns for Egypt, especially if Gazans are not permitted to return. “Egypt hosts more than 9 million refugees and migrants who pose an economic burden and do not live in camps,” he said.

“Rather than treating displaced people as refugees or housing them in camps, Egypt has integrated them into society and considers them ‘guests,’ as President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi has repeatedly stated.”

Sudanese brick makers work in an agricultural field in the capital Khartoum's district of Jureif Gharb on November 11, 2019. Egypt is home to more than 9 million foreign nationals who have fled conflict from their countries, and Egypt has integrated mnost of them into society and considers them ‘guests.’  (AFP)

Indeed, the UN refugee agency, UNHCR, has praised Egypt for its policy of placing displaced foreign nationals in host communities, “reflecting the government’s commitment to the Global Compact on Refugees’ principle of finding alternatives to camps.”

Egypt is a signatory to key international treaties defining refugee rights and state obligations, including the 1951 Refugee Convention, its 1967 Protocol, and the 1969 Organization of African Unity Convention.

While official statistics show that Egypt hosts more than 9 million refugees and asylum-seekers, only 822,701 of them were registered with the UNHCR as of October. Access to many services typically requires being registered with the UNHCR or one of its partners.

REFUGEES & MIGRANTS IN EGYPT

• 4 million+ Sudanese

• 1.5 million+ Syrians

• 1million+ Yemenis

• 1 million+ Libyans

(Source: IOM)

According to UN figures, Egypt’s registered refugees originate from 59 nations, including Sudan, Syria, South Sudan, Eritrea, Ethiopia, Yemen, Somalia, and Iraq. As of October 2023, the Sudanese nationality was the largest group, followed by Syrians.

Sudan, which borders Egypt to the south, has been trapped in a state of conflict between rival military factions since April 2023, leading to one of the world’s worst humanitarian catastrophes, displacing some 12 million people, both internally and externally.

In this photo taken on May 13, 2023, Sudanese fleeing war-torn Sudan are seen arriving at Qastal land port crossing between Egypt and Sudan. (AFP)

Fighting between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the paramilitary Rapid Support Forces has devastated the capital Khartoum and other cities, shattering the nation’s health system and compounding outbreaks of once preventable diseases.

Domestic agriculture and supply chains have collapsed, leading to outbreaks of famine across the country. In Darfur and other areas, accounts of sexual violence and even genocide have emerged. Access issues and underfunding have hampered the humanitarian response.

Syria, meanwhile, has only recently emerged from more than a decade of civil war, which has displaced millions of refugees throughout the region and across the globe. Instability persists even after the toppling of the Bashar Assad regime, and swathes of the country remain in ruins.

This photo taken on January 4, 2018, shows Syrian refugees working at a restaurant in Egypt's second city of Alexandria. Egypt welcomed tens of thousands of people displaced since the Syrian civil war broke out in 2011. (AFP/File)

South Sudan and nations on the Horn of Africa have experienced some of the most extreme and least reported conflicts of recent years, including the Tigray war in Ethiopia, not to mention climate disasters including devastating floods and crippling drought.

Recent and ongoing conflicts in Libya, Yemen, and Iraq have likewise sent millions in search of safety and a route out of poverty in Egypt — already the Arab world’s most populous country — which has itself experienced instability and hardship.

Egyptian Prime Minister Mostafa Madbouly said last year that Egypt hosted 40 percent of those fleeing Sudan, 1.5 million Syrian refugees since 2012, and expected to receive more Palestinians displaced from Gaza.

Since Israel mounted its military campaign in the Gaza Strip on Oct. 7, 2023, in retaliation for the deadly Hamas-led attack on southern Israel, nearly all of the enclave’s 2.2 million residents have been displaced from their homes at least once.

People fleeing from the Gaza Strip wait in the Egyptian part of the Rafah border crossing with the Palestinian enclave, on December 3, 2023, amid continuing battles between Israel and the militant group Hamas. (AFP)

As many as 100,000 Gazans managed to cross into Egypt before Israel captured the Rafah border crossing in May, according to Palestine’s Ambassador in Cairo Diab Al-Louh. Many lacked the documents needed to enroll children in school, open businesses, travel, or access health services.

Trump first floated the idea of relocating Gazans en masse on Jan. 25 and reiterated it the next day aboard Air Force One, saying he wanted the Palestinian enclave “just cleaned out” to start afresh after a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Hamas was announced in mid-January.

On Feb. 4, he went even further, announcing plans for a US “takeover” of the Gaza Strip during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in Washington D.C.

Demonstrators gather outside the Egyptian side of the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on January 31, 2025 to protest against a plan floated by US President Donald Trump to move Palestinians from the Gaza Strip to Egypt and Jordan. (AFP)

Trump said he wanted the US to take a “long-term ownership position” and turn the Eastern Mediterranean territory into the “Riviera of the Middle East.” Palestinians could be resettled away from Gaza, “in areas where the leaders currently say no,” he said.

Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty had already expressed concerns about the strain Egypt’s refugee burden is placing on the national budget and host communities, citing insufficient international support amid the growing number of displaced people.

During a Jan. 27 meeting with heads of three UN agencies in Geneva, Abdelatty reiterated Egypt’s call for a fairer and more sustainable distribution of responsibility, urging the UN International Organization for Migration to help manage migrant flows and strengthen Egypt’s capacity to host those it already had.

On Jan. 28, Abdelatty told the Universal Periodic Review of Human Rights in Geneva that his country has shouldered a significant responsibility on behalf of the international community by hosting 10.7 million foreign nationals, including refugees and irregular migrants.

However, he said Egypt’s “capacity to accommodate and continue our efforts is at risk, especially given the insufficient international support relative to the pressures we are facing.”

Delegates pose for a group picture during a humanitarian conference for Gaza in Cairo on December 2, 2024, amid the continuing war between Israel and Hamas. (AFP)

In April last year, Egypt’s Prime Minister Madbouly said hosting some 9 million refugees was costing his country approximately $10 billion per year, at a time when Egypt is grappling with its own economic crisis, despite receiving financial assistance from the EU, the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and others to help stave off collapse.

Egypt’s revenues from the Suez Canal dropped by more than 60 percent in 2024, amounting to a $7 billion loss compared to the previous year, President El-Sisi said in a December statement. The loss was primarily driven by regional tensions, including attacks on ships in the Red Sea by the Iran-backed Houthi militia in Yemen.

Egypt’s economy is also struggling with a high inflation rate, which stood at 24.1 percent in December, according to Trading Economics.

A young boy delivers freshly-baked bread in the al-Darb al-Ahmar district in the old quarters of Cairo on May 28, 2024. 

Economic repercussions are not the sole concern surrounding plans to relocate Gazans to Egypt. Officials believe the move may also threaten the security of the country and the wider region.

El-Sisi told a press conference on Jan. 29 that the transfer of Palestinians “can never be tolerated or allowed because of its impact on Egyptian national security.”

Egyptian academic Nasira said that implementing Trump’s proposal “could shift the conflict onto Egyptian soil and across the Middle East.”

Tanks stand on guard along the Egyptian side near the Rafah border crossing with the Gaza Strip on January 19, 2025. Egyptians fear that Trump’s proposal to relocate Gazans to Egypt “could shift the conflict onto Egyptian soil and across the Middle East.” (AFP)

Two days before El-Sisi’s statement, Parliament Speaker Hanafy El-Gebaly warned that relocating Gaza’s residents “may impede efforts to maintain the current truce and reach a permanent ceasefire” and risk “transferring the conflict to other territories, with disastrous repercussions for the entire region.”

Nasira said Cairo considers the relocation a threat to its national security, “as it could destabilize the Suez Canal the Sinai Peninsula, which was contested in multiple wars, the most recent in October 1973,” and “fuel further extremism in Egypt and the broader region.”

Echoing Cairo’s concerns, several influential Arab nations, including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Qatar, also warned that such plans “threaten the region’s stability, risk expanding the conflict, and undermine prospects for peace and coexistence among its peoples.”

Cairo fears that relocating Palestinians from Gaza — along with Hamas and other militant groups — could unravel the Camp David Accords, brokered in 1978 by US President Jimmy Carter between Egyptian President Anwar Sadat and Israeli Prime Minister Menachem Begin.

Palestinian leader Yasser Arafat (R) is seen with his supporters in Beirut during the early days of the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon. (AFP)

Palestinian militant groups could ignite future wars on Egyptian territory — much like in 1970s Lebanon, when Yasser Arafat’s Palestine Liberation Organization turned the southern part of the country into a launchpad for attacks on Israel.

Shortly after the Gaza war began, El-Sisi warned a mass exodus of Palestinians into Egypt’s Sinai could wreck the 1978 peace deal, turning the region into “a base for attacks on Israel,” prompting Israel to “strike Egyptian territory.”

He said: “The peace which we have achieved would vanish from our hands. All for the sake of the idea of eliminating the Palestinian cause.”